🔗 Share this article

Against the backdrop of the considerable disarray regarding the US strikes on Venezuela, the apprehension of leader Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “manage” the country and “reclaim the petroleum resources”, there is no doubt – this establishes a profoundly disturbing precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States carries a troubling legacy of interference, invasion and occupation in Latin America, but the early hours of Saturday saw its first major military attack on the soil of a South American nation. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Mr Trump declared.

The move to assault another independent nation and abduct its leader – just a short time after he publicly sought an off-ramp – has still wider repercussions. This ought to concern everyone.

A Nation Left in Limbo

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has suggested that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and dismissed rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other parts of the headless administration are far more intransigent.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who was elected pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He does not see the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is transforming it into a renegade nation.

He believes that the US’s might enables it to do as it wishes with little consequence: observe the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He promises that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this latest episode “will be financially free”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came lacking any form of UN approval or authorization from lawmakers; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to shatter them.

Set aside the message this sends to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will surely embolden additional military gambits.

The Thin Pretext and True Motives

It is widely rejected the pretext that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is driven by the lure of oil as well as personal bravado, the worldview of key officials, and the appetite for triumphalism as his support at home declines.

World Leaders' Silence and a Weakened UN

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode highlights the UN's diminishing clout.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could potentially force him to redirect his gaze inward – but soaring healthcare premiums, financial discontent and other domestic scandals make foreign conflicts more appealing.

It has been less than 12 months into his presidential term. World leaders may regret it if they stay silent now, given what – and who – could be next.